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September 08, 2005

Gasoline Price Gouging?

I'm not sure what to make of this news from the Seattle P-I (and reported elsewhere as well):

Senators condemn oil price 'gouging'
Responding to high-octane suspicions of price gouging at the pump, senators from both parties Tuesday condemned price manipulation but differed over the best way to attack the problem...

Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., is convinced that the oil companies have artificially increased prices and wants President Bush to have the power to cap gas prices if necessary. She likens the conditions to those that caused the Enron fraud of the electricity market in 2000 and 2001.

"Absolutely. I just don't have the document to prove it," Cantwell said when asked if oil companies are price gouging.

I don't mean to defend the behavior of oil companies here, and I also don't want to get mixed up in semantics.  But I'm far from convinced that the recent runup in gas prices is actually a case of unethical profiteering.  It seems to me to be simple market economics:  oil and gasoline supplies are tight, and demand is up.  And that dynamic alone -- quite independently of any malicious manipulation by oil companies -- seems to be what's forcing prices up.

This post at The Oil Drum blog goes into the details of recent oil pricing dynamics better than I could.  Start there for the real skinny.

But I'll just say that there seems to be a material difference between recent gasoline price runups and the California energy crisis.  The winter of 2000/2001 was one of the driest on record, which meant that hydroelectric production was unusually low up and down the West coast.  But that scarcity set the stage for market manipulation:  a handful of energy companies were able to game the California electricity market by (among other tactics) taking some power plants offline -- allegedly for "maintenance," but really to manufacture more scarcity.

But nothing similar seems to be happening here. US oil refineries really do seem to be running full-out, or close to it:  they've got very little unused capacity, and the only ones that have been shuttered for maintenance recently are the ones that got pummelled by Katrina.  So refiners, at least, don't seem to be gaming the system. 

Likewise, major oil producers -- not just domestically, but globally -- seem to be pumping just about as much as they can.  There's very little unused production capacity left right now -- and, as a consequence, very little cushion against supply shocks, such as those caused by Katrina.

So:  global oil supplies are tight; global demand for petroleum products is high and increasing; domestic refiners and oil producers are both running as fast as they can; spare production and refining capacity is low & unstable.  That's a perfect, free-market recipe for higher prices. There's no need to invoke corporate malfeasance to explain high prices: in a market for a finite & highly valued commodity, price runups are exactly what one should expect.

Now, I'm not saying that higher gas prices are desirable, fair, or good for the economy; and there are probably reasonable arguments that some oil companies shouldn't be reaping such an economic windfall from a supply shortage.  But just because oil companies are benefitting from high gasoline prices, it doesn't follow that they're causing prices to rise.  For that, blame the fact that we've shackled our economy to a scarce commodity and a fickle marketplace.

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Comments

We are being gouged ! I back my statement with the recent profit figures of the Oil monopolies.

Posted by: Bob McClure | Sep 8, 2005 3:31:25 PM

If you feel you are being gouged, stop buying oil and refinery products. There is plenty of competition in the various petroleum product markets and little, if any evidence (or even suspicion), of collusion, so one must conclude that the runup of prices is the result we should expect in a market that has a structural shortage of supply.

As far as profit figures of oil companies (which are not monopolies, by the way), that is called windfall profits, and is no more unethical than the profit I derived from selling my house for 50% more than I bought it for five years ago. If you happen to own something that has high demand and short supply, you get rich if you sell it. That is where the oil companies are.

Posted by: Roy Smith | Sep 9, 2005 12:25:46 PM

I have worked in the transportation field for over 10 years. I finally have had enough of people saying that we need to lower our gas prices. It a supply and demand issue. If you don't want to feel like you are being gouged then consider the following:

America needs to stop depending on foreign oil
America needs to become more self sufficient
America needs to pay real prices of gasoline and come up will real transportation choices to move people not cars America needs to stop telling other countries that have supplies of oil how they need "democracy", which only leads to more corruption to support the American world of more debt, poverty and uneducated people that continue to perpetuate the horrible lies of the "american way"
America needs stop supporting the SOV and the SUV they should be taxed more for their impact on the roads.
America should not build their way out of their addiction to driving.
America needs to stop using farm land to build roads America needs to begin supporting Amtrak as much as they do the airlines.

America is young, America has a lot of growing up to do.

I don't believe in reducing the amount we are
paying--we are at the peak of oil consumption. Barrels of oil are close to $70 and there is no chance this amount is ever going to decrease. We could drill in
the artic, but this will last only 30 years if that and imagine the damage and loss of nature that we would cause for our selfish behaviour. Each day people should consider your choices, it's not just oil to run
our cars how about the oil to make the bags to carry our food that was driven across the country. Think about other developing countries the "best practices" we are sharing with them. Imagine every person in China with
an automobile. And why should only America have a car? Imagine the billions of people making their way to using more of the earth's limited resources. There is only so much oil and there will not be enough for our children to manage their life in the same way we do today. We must imagine a world without oil today.

Australia and Canada pay $4.00 a gallon
Europe pays $6.00 a gallon
America pays $2.00 a gallon

FOR GAS!!!

What about for a gallon of MILK that will feed a person not a car?

That's my 2 cents.

Posted by: Lisa Quinn | Sep 11, 2005 5:37:12 PM

I am also not convinced that price gouging is taking place. But it is a complex topic and perhaps the Senator has some hard evidence. One of the items included in her proposal calls for more transparency, which would help clarify the situation.

But along the lines of what Lisa has just written, what disturbs me about this proposal and also proposals by others to roll back gas taxes is that they play along with the feeling that we Americans are entitled to low gas prices, and that a price rise for whatever cause has to be beaten back. Lets face it – as discussed in an earlier post (in Katrina and the Waves) - we seem to have reached a point where the oil (and natural gas) markets have finally realized that future production may not be able to match demand. We may be entering a period of variable but higher trending prices. While not encouraging high prices, rather than fighting them perhaps our efforts should be concentrated on helping those who are really affected by any fast changes (who are usually not the ones who complain the most), and moving to the future with alternative fuels and much more conservation.

We lost a great opportunity after 9/11 to call on ourselves to reduce our gas guzzling habits. I think people were ready to do something then but instead were told to go out and consume more. We seem to be hesitant now with Katrina. In place of or at least in addition to the calls for investigation into pricing or to rollback gas taxes, why not also call on Americans to drive less (say 5-10%, matching the amount of refining capacity that has been knocked out for awhile) or to reinstate the 55 mhp speed limit. Not popular, I’m sure, but such a small sacrifice compared to the folks on the gulf coast who have lost a lot more.

Posted by: WayneS | Sep 11, 2005 8:11:18 PM